World Energy Outlook 2020
The International Energy Agency lowered its forecasts for global oil demand for the first time in months as the number of Covid-19 infections remains high, affecting the demand of the aviation sector.
The IEA’s monthly report says global oil demand today stands at 91.1 million barrels per day in 2020, reflecting a drop of 8.1 million barrels per day year on year..
This revised forecast is 140 thousand barrels per day lower than the agency’s previous forecast.
The agency also revised its estimate of global oil demand in 2021 by 240,000 barrels per day to 97.1 million barrels, with weak demand for jet fuel was defined as «main source» lower expectations.
The report comes out shortly after the world’s largest oil and gas companies reported historical losses in the second quarter, as quarantine measures worldwide led to an unprecedented drop in demand in energy markets.
Earlier this year, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol told reporters that 2020 could very well be the worst year in the history of oil markets.
«Recent data suggests that recovery has occurred in many regions, although Europe remains in an uptrend for now», – said in a release by the IEA on Thursday.
«For road fuel, demand in the first half of 2020 was slightly stronger than expected, but our expectations remain cautious in the second half. The rise in the number of Covid-19 cases led to the fact that we downgraded our estimates for gasoline», – agency writes.
International benchmark Brent crude oil futures traded at $ 45.29 on Thursday morning, while crude oil futures West Texas Intermediate brands were at $ 42.52, sipping about 0.4%.
Oil prices fell more than 25% year on year.
Coronavirus outbreak darkens expectations for oil demand growth, IEA report says.
Paris-based energy agency says aviation and transportation, critical components of oil consumption, continue to grapple with the effects of the pandemic.
Aviation activity is down about two-thirds from pre-crisis standard levels in July, which tends to be one of the peak months for air traffic..
July data show fuel demand in Europe and North America remains below seasonal norms. However, in Latin America and India, these numbers are even worse..
The number of new daily cases of coronavirus in the world reaches its highest level since the early days of the pandemic earlier this month.
To date, according to Johns Hopkins University, more than 20.6 million people have become infected with COVID-19..
The IEA said global oil supplies are likely to drop 7.1 million barrels per day in 2020 and rise 1.6 million barrels per day next year..
It added that shipments of black gold rose 2.5 million barrels per day to 90 million barrels in July after OPEC leader Saudi Arabia stopped voluntary production cuts, the United Arab Emirates exceeded its OPEC + target, and production in the United States began to recover.